A Slow Start: Winter 2024-2025 in Review
Flagstaff winters are known for their heavy snowfall, bustling Arizona Snowbowl, and the distinctive beauty of snow-blanketed ponderosa pines. This season, however, has been anything but typical. With only 2 inches of snowfall recorded so far, Winter 2024-2025 has been exceptionally dry compared to historical averages.
- November 2024: A single, small storm (November 5th-6th) brought a dusting of snow, marking an early, yet uninspiring start to the season.
- December 2024: Zero snowfall was recorded, making it one of the driest Decembers in recent memory.
- January 7th-8th, 2025: A minimal storm dropped light snow primarily over Doney Park, with most of Flagstaff seeing little to no accumulation.
By comparison, January is typically a month of robust snowfall in Flagstaff. With an average of 20-25 inches of snow, it’s historically one of the most reliable months for winter weather.
Typical January Weather in Flagstaff
January’s climate is usually shaped by frequent Pacific storm systems and cold high-altitude conditions that favor snowfall. Here’s what the numbers look like in a typical year:
- Average January Snowfall: 22 inches
- Average Temperature:
- Low: 16°F
- High: 40°F
- Average Number of Snow Days: 6-8 days
Historical Comparisons
Let’s take a look at how this year stacks up against other winters:
- January 2023: 28 inches of snow, a strong performance with multiple mid-sized storms.
- January 2012 (Driest Year): Only 3 inches of snow, with dry weather dominating most of the season.
- Record January Snowfall (1949): A staggering 104 inches, demonstrating the region’s potential for extreme winters.
This year’s 2-inch total is a significant deviation from the norm, placing 2024-2025 among the driest winters in recent decades – so far.
What’s Causing the Dry Winter?
Flagstaff’s snow patterns depend heavily on storm systems from the Pacific and the strength of the jet stream. This season, a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Southwest has redirected storms to the north, starving Flagstaff of its usual moisture.
Meteorologists point to the influence of a weak La Niña pattern, which often leads to drier conditions in northern Arizona. During La Niña years, the jet stream shifts farther north, diverting storms away from the Southwest. However, La Niña winters can still produce powerful but sporadic storms, as seen in the 2022-2023 season. That year, Flagstaff experienced long dry spells punctuated by significant snow events, resulting in an above-average total for the season despite the pattern’s typical dryness.
Looking Ahead: Is a Comeback Possible?
Flagstaff residents know that winter isn’t over yet. In fact, many of the region’s heaviest snowfalls historically occur in February and March.
- Historical Late-Winter Comebacks:
- 2018-2019: December was dry, but February saw record-breaking snowfall of 49 inches.
- 1992-1993: January was quiet, but March brought a surge of heavy snow.
Meteorologists suggest that the high-pressure ridge responsible for the current dry conditions may weaken later this month, potentially opening the door for wetter weather. A shift in the jet stream could bring Pacific storm systems directly over northern Arizona.
Current Predictions for January and February
January: Under La Niña Modoki conditions, Flagstaff may experience below-average snowfall, with the possibility of one or two minor storms. This pattern often leads to a northward shift in the jet stream, reducing the frequency of storm systems reaching northern Arizona.
February: As La Niña persists, drier conditions are generally expected. However, this pattern can also bring variability, allowing for occasional strong storms. Historically, La Niña years have produced both dry spells and significant snow events in Flagstaff.
How Residents Should Prepare
With Flagstaff’s unpredictable weather, residents should remain ready for the possibility of heavy snow later in the season. Here are a few tips:
- Stay Updated on Forecasts: Monitor local weather reports for potential storm developments.
- Maintain Snow Equipment: Ensure snow blowers, shovels, and plows are in working order.
- Prepare for Property Maintenance: Be ready to clear driveways and roofs quickly during sudden snow events.
- Stay Flexible: Late-winter storms can disrupt travel plans and require rapid adjustments to routines.
Conclusion
While Winter 2024-2025 has been uncharacteristically dry, Flagstaff’s weather is nothing if not surprising. With February and March still ahead, there’s ample time for a seasonal comeback. Whether this winter turns out to be a quiet anomaly or ends with a dramatic burst of snowfall, residents and businesses alike should stay prepared for whatever comes next.
Let’s hope God has more in store for Flagstaff’s snow enthusiasts!
